Oil has exceeded the $ 100 barrel as Russia casts doubt on the progress of the current peace talks with Ukraine and investors estimate the absence of Russian barrels in a tight market.
Futures in New York gained more than 8% on Thursday. Markets met after a Kremlin spokesman said a report on major progress in talks on Ukraine was "incorrect," but talks would continue. The war has severely disrupted Russia's oil flow, and the International Energy Agency has predicted that the outpouring of a key OPEC + member will drop by about a quarter in April. Three goods were unloaded at scheduled shipments in Russia in March.
The global Brent benchmark trades near the $ 105 barrel and has traded more than $ 5 intraday 16 times in a row - the longest ever - as the oil market has been hit by major gyrations.
"To say that oil prices have been fluctuating lately would be an understatement," Morgan Stanley analysts Martijn Rats and Amy Sergeant wrote in the paper, raising their forecast for Brent third quarter prices by $ 20 to $ 120 a barrel. "It will be very difficult for Russia to keep its sales at sea in the coming months."
Investors are also monitoring the re-emergence of the virus in China. Shanghai traffic congestion levels are slightly lower than a third of last year and there are restrictions on movement in the Shenzhen production area and Jilin province.
Rapid developments in the Ukrainian war and the sanctions that followed in Russia are causing great market volatility, and the holding of oil contracts has declined due to fluctuations. Libya said on Wednesday that OPEC should increase resources immediately to alleviate the power crisis, with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson expressing hope that Saudi Arabia could improve the outcome, but did not receive confirmation from the prime minister.
The oil markets have been very volatile this month, as Brent crude rises to about $ 140 a barrel to bounce back slightly above $ 100. The market is also in the middle of a financial crisis, leaving prices at risk of fluctuations. Completion rate is determined by open interest rates. WTI capture has been the lowest since 2016, and Brent's has been the lowest since 2015.
