Markets are easily understood when two global liquid commodity markets tell the same story about the economy.This is not one of those times.
On the other hand, there is the bond market, where the 2-year yield of BX: TMUBMUSD02Y briefly exceeded the 10-year yield of BX: TMUBMUSD10Y, and where some parts of the curve have been converted for some time. Follow the talk to look at the recession.
Then comes the stock market, where the S&P 500 SPX exits a 12% correction and improvement level since its decline on March 9. Also, the VIX VIX index of volatility index fell below the normal level of 19.67 by 2021, which is not at all an alarming level of so-called fear gauge.
"The recession is coming" experts say a CPI inflation that exceeds inflation will reduce consumer demand and quickly reduce real GDP. This seems to be what the yield curve is supposed to be, "said Bassman, who developed the MOVE index to measure interest rate fluctuations during a two-storey operation at Merrill Lynch.
"But since stocks have 'words', not 'real' values, they can still rise in such an environment." So even though Bassman says there may be a recession in terms of real GDP, nominal GDP could exceed 5%. He adds that 10 years should be "no problem" to kiss the 3.25% high reached in October 2018 if former Finance Secretary Larry Summers confirmed that the Federal Reserve had stumbled.
Since last May he has been advocating a comprehensive acquisition strategy, for every $ 25 in the five-year Treasury, with the option of placing $ 800 bonds that expire in seven years' 20 years.
One market Bassman says it makes sense is that loans are backed by loans, when the spread between MBS and Treasurys expands beyond their average. He says MBS is better bought than selling, which is why mortgage REITs are much better.
“The biggest risk of these investments is their funding costs, which are linked to the level of fed-funds. Currently, the market is calling for a high 2.75% feed supply that will be reached in June 2023, in fact when the yield curve predicted that the recession should begin. To the extent that this is true, you can dip your toe; but if the Fed has a lot to do, these investments will reduce their payments, ”Bassman said.
The buzz
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said there was no reason to believe that Russia would reduce military operations near Kyiv after talks held on Tuesday. Poland says it will end all Russian oil purchases by the end of the year, as Germany has issued a warning about natural gas from Russia.
The ADP reported an increase of 455,000 wages for private companies in March. The third quarter GDP forecast for the fourth quarter was gradually revised, and speeches from two Fed regional presidents were at an all-time high.
Athletics apparel manufacturer Lululemon Athletica LULU reported a fourth-quarter profit that is stronger than predictable and focused on current year profits and pre-sales profits.
Memory-chip maker Micron MU has exceeded Wall Street expectations due to continued growth in data center sales.
RH RH furniture retailer has announced a 3-for-1 stock split but warned of a need to soften it after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Camden Property Trust CPT will replace People's United Financial, acquired, in the S&P 500.
Market
The U.S. stock futures ES00 NQ00 indicated a soft start. The future of the CL oil is up, as did the GC00 gold.
Top tickers
Here are the most active tickets to the stock market from 6am Eastern
Security name
| GME | GameStop |
| AMC | AMC Entertainment |
| TSLA | Tesla |
| NIO | NIO |
| HYMC | Hycroft Mining |
| TLRY | Tilray Brands |
| MULN | Mullen Automotive |
| AAPL | Apple |
| BABA | Alibaba |
| NVDA | Nvidia |
They just revealed what they believe are the ten best stocks for investors to buy right now…
Courtesy Grizler.com
