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Saturday, March 26, 2022

Tesla Stock Has Been on a Tear. Deliveries Can Keep It Going.

 The Tesla Model S Plaid can go from 0 to 60 in just two seconds. Tesla stock could gain more than 30% in less than two weeks.



Tesla (tick: TSLA) was completely dismantled, rising eight days in a row, its longest win since January 2021. Stocks gained 32% in that time, placing more than $ 1,000 and its market above $ 1 trillion for the first time. time from January 2022. The streak ended on Friday, when Tesla fell 0.3%, closing the week at $ 1,010.64.


It was a game of heroes, but not easy to explain. Such movements rarely occur in other large-scale stocks. The biggest eight-day profit from Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), or Amazon.com (AMZN) since early 2021 has been a 19% gain on Amazon stock, which also happened this month. And Tesla's run-ups do not always seem to fit in with the basics, frustrating bulls and bears. Moreover, huge gains and huge losses often mean that the stock is not really going anywhere - Tesla, after all, has risen only 3% in the last three months, though that is better than the S&P 500's 8% decline.


However, Tesla is not accustomed to moving without a reason, even if the reason is sometimes unclear. To understand why stocks are gaining momentum, it is helpful to understand why they are declining before the move. Future Fund Active ETF CEO Gary Black blames Federal Reserve for Tesla's recent trading instability. He notes that Tesla's stock has dropped 32% since the end of November, when the Fed suddenly became hawkish, until March 14, when it saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fall by about 12% and 22%, respectively. Two days later, the Fed raised prices by a quarter-point, and then went on to race. "Sell rumors, buy news," said Black.



But that points to another Tesla-inflation problem. That’s why the Fed has had to raise prices, and it’s a threat to Tesla’s profit margin and a host of other businesses. In fact, Tesla's decline coincided with the price of a double-barreled lithium battery, adding up to $ 2,500 to the standard EV price — and forcing many EV manufacturers to raise prices. Citigroup analyst Jeff Chung cited more than a dozen price increases for Chinese EV manufacturers in recent months, including the departure of Tesla.



A bigger deal than Berlin awaits delivery of Tesla's first quarter, which is likely to be announced on Saturday, April 2. Wall Street expects deliveries to reach between 310,000 and 320,000 vehicles, rising nearly 10,000 from the start of the quarter. Tesla delivered 309,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2021. Even those ratings may be too low, according to analyst, who believes delivery is in the “pre-street expectations.”