Content Plus: The stock market is depressed, and apparently that's great: Morning Brief

Markets have grown well in early March due to the start of the Russian war in Ukraine, but they still face the problem of depression.

The percentage of individual investors who consider themselves bullish has reached just 23.9% in the last 10 weeks, according to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). Truist-affiliated investment officer Keith Lerner points out that this is the lowest level of stability since the June 2016 Brexit survey and one of the least hopeful studies since the 1987 survey was launched.

So what did this level of historical stress mean for the stock market in the coming months? Guess what, rally!

Historically, these lower levels in the survey were followed by a steady and positive return on a six- to 12-month basis for the S&P 500, Lerner notes.

It is only in the investment world that the bad equals good (perhaps it does in some places, who knows).

"Part of the market stability may be due to anticipation of depressed investors, which suggests that markets have already tightened and eased some of the known challenges. does not end the bull market, "Lerner explains in a recent energy market show.

All of this strange optimism can open the dime in the current environment, however.

President Biden will meet with European leaders this week on the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Any article from that event can send markets, easily. Nike earnings came out after closing today - the company is bellwether, so a bad conference call and appearance will not be taken seriously by investors (street chat awaits Nike warning). Fed members are likely to speak to the media circuit following their meeting last week.

But apart from the headline disaster, Defiance ETF founder Sylvia Jablonski is probably better off summarizing the idea in a more tolerant market in the near future.

Back on the road: "Things" are returning to New York City after two years or more of the epidemic, and it's exciting to see. In my work, "things" tend to be equally thoughtful, personal events / meetings with interesting people. Two that came into my calendar recently. First, I spent time with Diageo CEO Ivan Menezes and his team following a day of investors in the city. We were taken around the company HQ (yes, there is a roll bar there) to see what Don Julio tequila, Guinness beer and other top brands are working on. I (and I think so and others who were there) came in very impressed. The company indulges in high-end alcoholic beverages (think $ 350 rare tequila for instant sale) and seltzer-like alcoholic beverages (hard seltzer players like Boston Beer should be concerned). Why Diageo has done well financially in recent areas even though the barriers still being disrupted by the epidemic came to life here. Based on what I have seen and the conversations I have had (and considering that this could be a strong summer out), the stock looks very cheap at earnings that is 21 times higher. Below is a visual eye candy - Johnnie Walker's first paper bottle.

Another event I attended was the CEO Conference - hosted by ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott. I will not go into details about this event, unless I have talked to several software banks. My general impression is that (1) the sale of multiple stocks of software like Snowflake (and others) may be close to exhaustion (helpful chart from Jefferies' Brent Thill below to make a better point in this + see Anaplan's Thoma Agreement - $ 10.7 billion today); and (2) keep an eye on the performance of Amazon Web Services, its cloud control is removed, perhaps beyond what people think (Microsoft is often called).

Facilitators speak out: Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has long warned of inflation. “Eventually we will need 4-5% interest, rates they never even imagined. They see that they are behind the curve. They still have a long way to go, ”

SoFi chief executive Anthony Noto has come out busy with the postponement of student loan repayments. "The Biden administration is still reeling from the issue of student loan repayments and possible exemptions," Noto said in a blog post. Noto is often very rated, so this post caught me off guard - but it makes sense as SoFi is heavily involved in student loans.

The talk of the recession continues. "I'm high, but I'm not much higher than 20%," former Obama administration economist Jason Furman told Insider about the recession.

And the Russian boat hunt continues. "The Oligarchs help keep Putin in power, so they need to feel the heat of Putin's war. That's why we follow their yachts, their condos, and all the places where they put their treasure. And that's why we must connect. This hole in our sanction bucket , ”Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) said in a new tweet.

GameStop: GameStop quarter came with the results of ridiculous tweets from true believers in the name. Most of their tweets cannot be posted here. But I want to throw this loving team another bone of analysis so I can devour it. GameStop has 4,573 stores worldwide. Apart from that size, the company spent only $ 62 million throughout 2021 on huge costs (think of the money spent on repairs, lamps, racks, basic maintenance, etc.).

To get an idea of how small that is, here is the money spent by a few other big capex retailers in 2021: