This week, investors will face new data on the inflation situation, as the Federal Reserve is quick to reduce inflation sharply. The quarterly earnings season will also continue, with a number of carefully monitored stock index components reporting results.
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics' April Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be released on Wednesday, will be one of the most watched economic reports this week. The headline index is expected to fall on both monthly and yearly basis, giving a new indication that inflation is likely to culminate in March.
In particular, consensus economists demanded the widest CPI rate to rise by 8.1% in April, down from the March 8.5% development. That increase marked the fastest rate since 1981. On a monthly basis, the CPI in the article is expected to increase by only 0.2%, which has also dropped significantly from an increase of 1.2%.
Despite the volatile food and energy prices, the average CPI rate is expected to drop to 6.0% per annum. That will be the slowest rate since December, following March's 6.5% annual increase in core CPI.
Energy price estimates are likely to have a significant impact on the decline in CPI headlining. Prices for crude oil, gas and other energy sources rise in late February and March following Russia's first invasion of Ukraine. Although power outages and other supply chain concerns related to these global concerns continued, the level of inflation from these events was temporarily postponed.
"After raising the issue in March, electricity prices will be a major drag marking the decline in fuel prices in line with negative seasonal factors," wrote Bank of America global economist Ethan Harris in a letter on Friday. "In the meantime, food prices should remain high. If our forecast proves to be accurate, the annual inflation rate will drop to 7.9% from 8.5%, confirming March as the highest inflation rate."
During the basic inflation, however, some high-volume segments are still expected to reach the heat, keeping inflation high, compared to high levels. Rental housing in particular is expected to continue to rise, indicating a high demand as rising housing prices and mortgage rates keep many homebuyers absent.
"Food, energy and shelter are areas to look at, but shelter is very important," said Greg McBride, BankRate's chief financial analyst, in an email on Friday. "More housing budgets - and a two-digit increase in rental rates, puts the domestic budget in jeopardy even when food and energy costs are high."
Most importantly, even if inflation rates fall on record, prices will still rise in units beyond the pre-epidemic trends and Federal Reserve targets for the U.S. economy. The central bank last week introduced the first 50-point interest rate hike since 2000 and announced the start of inflation, in some early steps to try to address the growing demand that keeps inflation rising throughout the economy.
Benefits of Disney
This week, the salary season will continue with another busy schedule of reports scheduled to be released.
Disney (DIS), a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, will be one of the companies scheduled to report the results. Its various businesses, including its theme parks, movie studios and broadcast facilities, have established the company as a part of you both in terms of staying home and reopening trade.
But in this lead season, Disney's broadcasting business will be a major hit after a disappointing Netflix report last month. In that printout, Netflix posted its first drop in subscriber growth for the first time in a decade, and said it expected to lose another 2 million paid users in the current quarter.
