Wall Street is in unusually good condition Tuesday morning.
Tim Holland, chief investment officer at Orion Advisor Solutions, says the market has recently gained two peaks. Last week, the Department of Labor reported that inflation was slow, with each investor's sentiment reflecting a high percentage of individual investors who had not been active since 2009.
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"If we have seen high inflation and high numbers of unsuspecting investors the way to the market should be very constructive," Holland said.
Not everyone is sure. The London-based Credit Suisse-based international strategic team has been vigilant in stocks since February - and is still vigilant. They say the risk of a recession is still very high and there is nothing wrong with their fair value models. Importantly, the risk to corporate income remains high.
“Wage updates have started to decline and 71% of the time when this happens, markets fall in the next quarter. Current PMIs suggest significant significant reductions in updates. We see a clear danger of a negative EPS in 2023, ”said strategists led by Andrew Garthwaite.
Indeed, markets have fallen after a nearly 19.5% decline from the upside - an intraday decline in the S&P 500 SPX reached last Thursday - but three times in those four times, the Fed has been on the decline.
For the Credit Suisse team to change, it will take, more or less, clear signs that the Fed’s rise is hampering the economy.
“What do we need to see in order to be more constructive? Significant signs of slowdown in U.S. wage growth, leading U.S. indicators fall sharply indicating that the Fed needs to do less to find unemployment to rise above full-time employment, signs of a new paradigm showing margins could remain high despite word GDP decline -8. ], a clear reduction in the model [equity risk premium model], or the distribution of debt reduces the recession, ”said Garthwaite and the team.
Whispering
Shares on Hong Kong's list including JD.com JD, Alibaba BABA and NetEase NTES are expanding as Shanghai plans to reopen on its tightly closed, including full reopening on June 1. JPMorgan has also upgraded a number of technical shares. in China on the US list on Monday. .
Elon Musk - on Twitter, anyway - said his gift of TWTR communication service cannot continue until the company provides more details on the number of spam accounts. CEO Parag Agrawal says he is convinced that spam accounts represent less than 5% of the user base, and the company said it was 'committed to finalizing' the $ 54.20-a-share agreement in a proxy statement. Separately, Musk may be selling shares in SpaceX to help fund the bid, reports.
A big day for sales, as Home Depot HD reported an unexpected increase in the same store sales, but Walmart WMT shares were hit by a loss of earnings and a slowdown in sentiment. The April store sales report is expected to show a sharp increase in spending, driven by car sales. Industrial production and a home builder emotional report will also be released.
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell is due at 2 p.m. East will appear in the Wall Street Journal's Future of Everything Festival. Dozens of Fed regional presidents, from hawkish James Bullard to Neel Kashkari, also have to speak.
A wave of 13-F reports was submitted from senior shareholders to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Berkshire Hathaway has unveiled new stakes in Citigroup C, Paramount Global PARA and Celanese CE, among others. Chase Coleman's Tiger Global Management, which has worked hard this year, has expanded its stakes in several technology games including CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD, Sea SE, Snowflake SNOW, ServiceNow NOW and Carvana CVNA.
Markets seem to be flying high, as the future of U.S. stock The ES00 NQ00 went up and the DXY dollar went down. Treasury produces TY00 BX: TMUBMUSD02Y is also up.
