“Is the economy in control or is it growing? That is the question of the million dollars that traders continue to debate, ”
Apparently, the last controversy won - again - after Wall Street's worst day in two years, with a future showing more pain Thursday. Among the gloomsters, Guggenheim's Scott Minerd warned of possible "summer pain" - a 45% drop from the top of the S&P 500 and 75% below the Nasdaq.
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Undoubtedly, Wall Street has been measuring low stock forecasts in recent months. On the positive side, JPMorgan's leading mathematical strategist Marko Kolanovic told (in an interview earlier Wednesday) that shares would "rise out of this hole," as the economic downturn and fears of inflation are rampant.
Indeed, our daily call from Evercore strategists says that markets are growing with the view that the recession is an end in itself. They also say they are no longer scared, the powerful shopkeepers who were the cause of this sale, should calm down soon because the experienced ones are not yet scared (yet).
"On Thursday, we will get an idea of whether the market action is part of a slowdown, our primary case, or whether the downtrend could significantly reduce SPX 3,854, resulting in capitulation trading," noted the Evercore team, led by Julian Emanuel. .
Giving their opinion on what was happening with the selloff, Emanuel and the team argued that the markets were held in the Fed "the wrong way," meeting despite hawks' remarks from Chairman Jerome Powell, who then retaliated the next day, echoing what had happened in the past. pre-May meeting of the Fed.
What matters here is not whether markets understand the Fed's intentions, but “whether the 2022-23 recession is inevitable in the fight against inflation, the only previous experience of Volcker Fed tightening (1971-81) until the downturn. money often. it was inevitable. ”
Emanuel and the party do not think the Fed needs a recession, but say the stocks behave the way they do.
“The difference is significant. The last three non-Recession Bear markets dropped an average of -21.3% - 2018 to ‘V’ down, 2011 and 1998 ‘W’ - although none are listed as ‘official’ bears. The last three markets for Recession Bear (2020, 2007-09, 2000-02) have dropped by -47.9%, ”Evercore said.
