Twitter is one of the few major tech stocks that should not work this year, thanks to Elon Musk's 54.20-a-share bid for the company. Nathan Anderson bet this will not last. The founder of a short-lived retailer Hindenburg Research thinks Musk could explicitly make a deal for that price, but asks why he should, given the flow of news since Tesla's great founder started making his gambit last month.
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On March 24, a few weeks before he promised to buy Twitter, Elon Musk posted a survey on social media: "Twitter's algorithm should be open source," he wrote, with ways for users to vote "yes" or "no." Some Twitter technology is already open source, which means it is publicly available for anyone to ...
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Twitter trades about a 10 percent discount on the price offered by Musk, and has been approved by the company's board, indicating that there are some fears left that the deal could collapse. Let's call it Elon Risk discount. That may be nuts though. If Musk swallows the $ 1bn unbeatable vacation pay and leaves, Twitter shares could fall by as much as 50 percent. The full reason for the short position is here. Especially the fact that the Nasdaq traded hard last month, which means the price of the unallocated stock is $ 31.40 according to the short seller. Background on that,
1) Musk said he would lose his 9 percent share if he could not close the deal, and,
2) from the bid, Twitter reported weak earnings and excessive audience figures. Everything is ready for an amazing good fall - if Musk changes his mind or tries to cut a deal again. Re-negotiation appears to be a key issue for Hindenburg.
In our opinion, Musk has all the cards here. The Board immediately agreed to the agreement when conditions were favorable, and we think it will make the right decision again in the face of current reality. . . . All in all, we support Musk's efforts to keep Twitter private and see great potential for the deal to close at a lower price. FTAV is not sure what to do about this. Musk is not Carl Icahn, who famously never saw a deal he did not want to argue for better. Would Musk really want to go through a financial storm, legal battles, a wide-ranging newspaper, regulatory scrutiny, a real drama that could follow if. . . . . . hold on, yes he would.
