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Shares of Upstart Holdings Inc. down 46% in after-hour trading on Monday after the company cut its year-end forecast, warning that the current state of the economy is expected to weigh heavily on loan volume.
The company, which uses artificial intelligence in lending decisions, now expects a turnover in 2022 of approximately $ 1.25 billion. Its previous forecast was estimated at $ 1.4 billion.
Rising consumer interest rates mean that "at the end, more and more people are being disapproved," said Chief Executive Dave Girouard at Upstart's UPST, -8.06% lead call.
“So there are a lot of loans that have never happened, and there are a lot of people who are still approved, but the interest rate is a few percent higher, and a certain part of them will decide that is not the case. the product they want, ”he said, especially quoting the purchase issue in his own opinion.
In addition, Chief Financial Officer Sanjay Datta noted that although crime has been “unnaturally low” for nearly 18 months, the trend has changed in view of the lack of public service mobilization.
The power of crime also contributes to high interest rates quoted by consumers, he said, although Upstart has seen a steady decline in criminal activity over the past 60 days.
"Given the general uncertainty and emerging prospects for the recession this year, we have found it prudent to show a high degree of conservation in our expectations," Datta said in a call to Upstart's lead.
In the second quarter, Upstart was expecting $ 295 million to $ 305 million, while analysts were expecting $ 335 million.
The blurred forecast hides better results than expected from the latest Upstart quarter, as revenue jumped to $ 310 million from $ 121 million, while analysts expected $ 300 million.
The company generated $ 314 million in revenue, an increase of 170% since last year, and FactSet agreements were $ 287 million.
Upstart also reported first-quarter revenue of $ 32.7 million, or 34 cents per share, compared to $ 10.1 million, or 11 cents per share, in the previous year. After adjusting for stock-based compensation and other costs, Upstart earned 61 cents per share, up from 22 cents a year earlier and before the FactSet agreement, which was 53 cents per share.
"We're actually excited and very excited about the results," Girouard said in a lead call. While acknowledging "that 2022 is an economically difficult year," he emphasized that "he has as much confidence in business power and hope in our future, as we have."
Upstart shares lost 31% over the past three months as the S&P 500 SPX, -3.20% declined by 13%.
